CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RACE
Monte Carlo · 50,000 sims · Dixon-Coles ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG · Logit pooling (Odds+ML+DC) · MoV Elo
· Computed 31 Aug 2026 22:30 BST (1.5s)
38
Played
0
Remaining
14
Fixtures Left
5
Contenders
TOP 4 AT A GLANCE
West Ham United FC
100%
Currently 18th · 39 pts
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Burnley FC
100%
Currently 19th · 22 pts
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
100%
Currently 20th · 20 pts
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Chelsea FC
74.9%
Currently 4th · 6 pts
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 7.8
Title: 0% · IN THE FIGHT
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 7.8
Title: 0% · IN THE FIGHT
Leeds United FC
25.1%
Currently 8th · 4 pts
Avg finish: 8.6 · xPts 5
Title: 0% · OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Avg finish: 8.6 · xPts 5
Title: 0% · OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Manchester City FC
0%
Currently 1st · 6 pts
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 7.6
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 7.6
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Arsenal FC
0%
Currently 2nd · 6 pts
Avg finish: 6 · xPts 8.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 6 · xPts 8.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Hull City AFC
0%
Currently 3rd · 6 pts
Avg finish: 7 · xPts 6
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 7 · xPts 6
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
FULL QUALIFICATION PROBABILITIES
SEASON SIMULATION
50,000 SIMS · xG+DC · LOGIT POOLING · MoV ELO| PROJ | Team | Pts | GD | UCL (Top 4) | Title | Europa | Relegation | xPts | Avg Pos | Now | Position Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United FC | 39 | -19 | 100% | — | — | 39 | 1 | 18 ▲17 |
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| 2 | Burnley FC | 22 | -37 | — | — | — | 22 | 2 | 19 ▲17 |
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| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 20 | -41 | — | — | — | 20 | 3 | 20 ▲17 |
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| 4 | Chelsea FC | 6 | +2 | — | — | — | 7.8 | 5 | 4 — |
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| 5 | Manchester City FC | 6 | +4 | — | 100% | — | 7.6 | 5 | 1 ▼4 |
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| 6 | Arsenal FC | 6 | +4 | — | — | — | 8.7 | 6 | 2 ▼4 |
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| 7 | Hull City AFC | 6 | +3 | — | — | — | 6 | 7 | 3 ▼4 |
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| 8 | Brentford FC | 4 | +3 | — | — | — | 4 | 8.5 | 5 ▼3 |
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| 9 | Leeds United FC | 4 | +1 | — | — | — | 5 | 8.6 | 8 ▼1 |
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| 10 | Newcastle United FC | 4 | +2 | — | — | — | 4 | 9.5 | 6 ▼4 |
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| 11 | Everton FC | 4 | +2 | — | — | — | 4 | 10.5 | 7 ▼4 |
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| 12 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 3 | +3 | — | — | — | 3 | 12 | 9 ▼3 |
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| 13 | Manchester United FC | 3 | +1 | — | — | — | 3 | 13 | 10 ▼3 |
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| 14 | Sunderland AFC | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3 | 14 | 11 ▼3 |
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| 15 | Ipswich Town FC | 3 | -2 | — | — | — | 3 | 15 | 12 ▼3 |
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| 16 | Liverpool FC | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.7 | 16 | 13 ▼3 |
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| 17 | Nottingham Forest FC | 1 | -1 | — | — | — | 1 | 17 | 14 ▼3 |
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| 18 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | -1 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14 ▼4 |
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| 19 | Fulham FC | 0 | -2 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 16 ▼3 |
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| 20 | Coventry City FC | 0 | -4 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 17 ▼3 |
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| 21 | Crystal Palace FC | 0 | -5 | — | — | 0 | 21 | 18 ▼3 |
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| 22 | Aston Villa FC | 0 | -5 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 19 ▼3 |
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| 23 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0 | -5 | — | — | 0 | 23 | 19 ▼4 |
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Dashed green = UCL cutoff · xPts = 3×P(Win)+P(Draw) exact expected · DC ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG + Logit pooling · MoV Elo
KEY FIXTURES — TOP 6 HEAD-TO-HEAD
MATCHES THAT COULD DECIDE THE RACE
1 fixturesChelsea FC vs Leeds United FC
MD0
25 Apr
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
AFC Bournemouth
100%
Currently 14th · 1 pts
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 18
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 18
Fulham FC
100%
Currently 16th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 19
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 19
Coventry City FC
100%
Currently 17th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 20
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 20
Crystal Palace FC
100%
Currently 18th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 21
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 21
Aston Villa FC
100%
Currently 19th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 22
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 22
Tottenham Hotspur FC
100%
Currently 19th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 23
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 23