CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RACE
Monte Carlo · 50,000 sims · Dixon-Coles ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG · Logit pooling (Odds+ML+DC) · MoV Elo
· Computed 03 Jul 2026 01:30 BST (1.3s)
38
Played
0
Remaining
14
Fixtures Left
5
Contenders
TOP 4 AT A GLANCE
West Ham United FC
100%
Currently 18th · 39 pts
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Burnley FC
100%
Currently 19th · 22 pts
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
100%
Currently 20th · 20 pts
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Chelsea FC
51.7%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Avg finish: 9 · xPts 1.8
Title: 0% · IN THE FIGHT
Avg finish: 9 · xPts 1.8
Title: 0% · IN THE FIGHT
Leeds United FC
48.3%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Avg finish: 13.8 · xPts 1
Title: 0% · OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Avg finish: 13.8 · xPts 1
Title: 0% · OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Arsenal FC
0%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Avg finish: 5.2 · xPts 2.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 5.2 · xPts 2.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
0%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Avg finish: 6.2 · xPts 0
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 6.2 · xPts 0
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Newcastle United FC
0%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Avg finish: 7.2 · xPts 0
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 7.2 · xPts 0
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
FULL QUALIFICATION PROBABILITIES
SEASON SIMULATION
50,000 SIMS · xG+DC · LOGIT POOLING · MoV ELO| PROJ | Team | Pts | GD | UCL (Top 4) | Title | Europa | Relegation | xPts | Avg Pos | Now | Position Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United FC | 39 | -19 | 100% | — | — | 39 | 1 | 18 ▲17 |
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| 2 | Burnley FC | 22 | -37 | — | — | — | 22 | 2 | 19 ▲17 |
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| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 20 | -41 | — | — | — | 20 | 3 | 20 ▲17 |
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| 4 | Arsenal FC | 0 | 0 | — | 77% | — | 2.7 | 5.2 | 1 ▼3 |
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| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 6.2 | 1 ▼4 |
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| 6 | Newcastle United FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 7.2 | 1 ▼5 |
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| 7 | Crystal Palace FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 8.2 | 1 ▼6 |
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| 8 | Chelsea FC | 0 | 0 | — | 23% | 1.8 | 9 | 1 ▼7 |
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| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 9.2 | 1 ▼8 |
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| 10 | Nottingham Forest FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 10.2 | 1 ▼9 |
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| 11 | Coventry City FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 11.2 | 1 ▼10 |
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| 12 | Hull City AFC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 12.2 | 1 ▼11 |
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| 13 | Sunderland AFC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 13.2 | 1 ▼12 |
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| 14 | Leeds United FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 1 | 13.8 | 1 ▼13 |
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| 15 | Fulham FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 14.2 | 1 ▼14 |
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| 16 | Manchester City FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.6 | 15.2 | 1 ▼15 |
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| 17 | Manchester United FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 16.2 | 1 ▼16 |
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| 18 | Aston Villa FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 17.2 | 1 ▼17 |
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| 19 | Liverpool FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 2.7 | 18.2 | 1 ▼18 |
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| 20 | Brentford FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 19.2 | 1 ▼19 |
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| 21 | Everton FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 20.2 | 1 ▼20 |
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| 22 | AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 21.2 | 1 ▼21 |
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| 23 | Ipswich Town FC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 22.2 | 1 ▼22 |
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Dashed green = UCL cutoff · xPts = 3×P(Win)+P(Draw) exact expected · DC ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG + Logit pooling · MoV Elo
KEY FIXTURES — TOP 6 HEAD-TO-HEAD
MATCHES THAT COULD DECIDE THE RACE
1 fixturesChelsea FC vs Leeds United FC
MD0
25 Apr
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
Liverpool FC
100%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 18.2
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 18.2
Brentford FC
100%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 19.2
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 19.2
Everton FC
100%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 20.2
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 20.2
AFC Bournemouth
100%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 21.2
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 21.2
Ipswich Town FC
100%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 22.2
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 22.2
Leeds United FC
51.7%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 13.8
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 13.8
Chelsea FC
25.3%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 1.8 pts · Avg finish: 9
Projected: 1.8 pts · Avg finish: 9
Aston Villa FC
23%
Currently 1st · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 17.2
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 17.2