CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RACE
Monte Carlo · 50,000 sims · Dixon-Coles ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG · Logit pooling (Odds+ML+DC) · MoV Elo · Computed 17 Apr 2026 11:45 BST (15.3s)
32
Played
6
Remaining
74
Fixtures Left
7
Contenders
TOP 4 AT A GLANCE
Arsenal FC
100%
Currently 1st · 70 pts
Avg finish: 1.1 · xPts 83.9
Title: 91.4% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Manchester City FC
100%
Currently 2nd · 64 pts
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 75.7
Title: 8.6% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Manchester United FC
85.1%
Currently 3rd · 55 pts
Avg finish: 3.6 · xPts 65.9
Title: 0% · STRONG POSITION
Aston Villa FC
60.5%
Currently 4th · 55 pts
Avg finish: 4.4 · xPts 63.9
Title: 0% · IN THE FIGHT
Liverpool FC
34.3%
Currently 5th · 52 pts
Avg finish: 5.1 · xPts 64.2
Title: 0% · OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Chelsea FC
17.6%
Currently 6th · 48 pts
Avg finish: 5.9 · xPts 59.5
Title: 0% · OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Brentford FC
1.1%
Currently 7th · 47 pts
Avg finish: 8.6 · xPts 55.2
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
0.8%
Currently 9th · 46 pts
Avg finish: 8.8 · xPts 54.6
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
FULL QUALIFICATION PROBABILITIES

SEASON SIMULATION

50,000 SIMS · xG+DC · LOGIT POOLING · MoV ELO
PROJTeamPtsGDUCL (Top 4)TitleEuropaRelegationxPtsAvg PosNowPosition Range
1 Arsenal FC 70 +38
100% 		91.4% — — 83.9 1.1 1 —
2 Manchester City FC 64 +35
100% 		8.6% — — 75.7 2 2 —
3 Manchester United FC 55 +12
85.1% 		— 10.1% — 65.9 3.6 3 —
4 Aston Villa FC 55 +5
60.5% 		— 24.9% — 63.9 4.4 4 —
5 Liverpool FC 52 +10
34.3% 		— 29.8% — 64.2 5.1 5 —
6 Chelsea FC 48 +12
17.6% 		— 24.9% — 59.5 5.9 6 —
7 Brentford FC 47 +4
1.1% 		— 3.7% — 55.2 8.6 7 —
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 46 +6
0.8% 		— 3.3% — 54.6 8.8 9 ▲1
9 Everton FC 47 +2
0.4% 		— 1.7% — 54.1 9.5 8 ▼1
10 AFC Bournemouth 45 -1
0.2% 		— — — 53.4 10 11 ▲1
11 Sunderland AFC 46 -3
0.1% 		— — — 52.1 11.2 10 ▼1
12 Newcastle United FC 42 -2
0% 		— — — 51.2 11.3 14 ▲2
13 Fulham FC 44 -3
0% 		— — — 51.1 11.7 12 ▼1
14 Crystal Palace FC 42 -1
0% 		— — — 49.6 12.4 13 ▼1
15 Leeds United FC 36 -10
0% 		— — 1.6% 45.2 14.8 15 —
16 Nottingham Forest FC 33 -12
0% 		— — 26.4% 39.4 16.8 16 —
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 30 -11
0% 		— — 33.6% 38.6 16.9 18 ▲1
18 West Ham United FC 32 -17
0% 		— — 38.4% 38.8 17 17 ▼1
19 Burnley FC 20 -30
0% 		— — 100% 26 19.3 19 —
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 17 -34
0% 		— — 100% 23.9 19.7 20 —
Dashed green = UCL cutoff · xPts = 3×P(Win)+P(Draw) exact expected · DC ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG + Logit pooling · MoV Elo
KEY FIXTURES — TOP 6 HEAD-TO-HEAD

MATCHES THAT COULD DECIDE THE RACE

6 fixtures
Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC
MD33
18 Apr
Manchester City FC vs Arsenal FC
MD33
19 Apr
Manchester United FC vs Liverpool FC
MD35
03 May
Liverpool FC vs Chelsea FC
MD36
09 May
Aston Villa FC vs Liverpool FC
MD37
17 May
Manchester City FC vs Aston Villa FC
MD38
24 May
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
Burnley FC
100%
Currently 19th · 20 pts
Projected: 26 pts · Avg finish: 19.3
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
100%
Currently 20th · 17 pts
Projected: 23.9 pts · Avg finish: 19.7
West Ham United FC
38.4%
Currently 17th · 32 pts
Projected: 38.8 pts · Avg finish: 17
Tottenham Hotspur FC
33.6%
Currently 18th · 30 pts
Projected: 38.6 pts · Avg finish: 16.9
Nottingham Forest FC
26.4%
Currently 16th · 33 pts
Projected: 39.4 pts · Avg finish: 16.8
Leeds United FC
1.6%
Currently 15th · 36 pts
Projected: 45.1 pts · Avg finish: 14.8